Wednesday, November 18, 2009

Mideason (sorta) Trade Eval

It's kinda sorta still around midseason in the NFL, so let's evaluate some of the trades that happened in the offseason.

Cutler for Orton (basically)
Winner: both
Honestly, I like this deal for both sides. Sure, Cutler is a gunslinger in the young Favrian mold, and will turn the ball over, but Orton wasn't going to do any better with that offense. Chicago's problem is that they need a top receiver to draw double coverage and make big plays. Without that, their passing game will suffer. The lack of a consistent run game hasn't helped either, nor has the poor defensive play, meaning Cutler is trying to do too much to win the game. Give the man a good target and get the defense healthy and they'll be in much better shape offensively. As for Kyle Orton...wow. This is a perfect example of a QB needing a change of scenery to excel (you paying attention, Quinn?). In Denver Orton has two great WRs in Marshall and Royal, a solid TE in Scheffler, and, well, they always figure out how to run the ball eventually up there. Orton has had one bad game, against Pittsburgh, and has an excellent 11-4 TD-INT ratio, which is an eye-popping 11-1 if you take away the aforementioned Steelers contest. His 7.1 yards per attempt shows that he isn't just dumping the ball off either. At the end of the day, I think this will work out for both teams. Denver has found a solid QB who wants to be there, and Chicago has learned that their true need on offense was WR all along. The Bears fix that, and their offense will be what they thought it would be this year with Cutler.

Winslow Jr. to Tampa
Winner: Kellen Winslow, for getting out of Cleveland
Mangini began his castration of Cleveland's offense with this move in the offseason. First off, good coaches can get troubled players to compete. Look at McDaniels and Brandon Marshall. All Winslow has done in Tampa Bay is show up as the team's leading receiver, and a favorite target of rookie QB Josh Freeman. Alright, so Tampa isn't winning many more than Cleveland, but they at least have pieces in place to grow into a solid unit. Winslow has easily doubled the production of Cleveland's three TEs, and has more catches and nearly as many yards as Clevelands top 2 WRs combined. Yes, a lot of their problems are due to very poor QB play, but some of that is a result of having no weapons around the passers. Between this move and the mideason trade of Braylon Edwards, Mangini made it clear that he did not care about victories this season and was going to rebuild in the draft NEXT year. He better hope that he's around long enough to get the chance.

Richard Seymour to Oakland
Winner: not Al Davis
Typical New England. They let an aging player go for somebody who costs less money. In this case, I think they royally hosed the Raiders. Forget that they're the Raiders for a minute, and consider them to be your typical bottom-dwelling team. They gave New England a first round pick in the 2011 draft for a defensive end who averages less than 6 sacks over a 16 game season. Really, I never did get the hype over Seymour. Sure, he was in the NFL's Popularity Bowl a lot, and he was a good run defender, but as a pass rusher he left a lot to be desired. Now remember that they're the Raiders again. Al Davis saw another Pro Bowler with a decent amount of years left in the tank and went for it. Unless they're secretly grooming Seymour to play QB, this isn't going to do them a bit of good in either the short or the long term. That was a pretty high price for a guy who's given you sacks of two QBs and tackled two ball carriers behind the line so far this year.

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